75%
Another way to think about it the chance of getting 2 no crits in a row. This is .5 x .5 = 25% chance of no crits. Therefore, there is a 75% chance of at least one crit

Chance to have no crit is 50% twice.
So .5 * .5, which is .25 or 25%
So the chance to get at least one crit is 75%

Could also be presented as four possible combinations of events with equal likelihood.
Crit - Crit
Crit - No Crit
No Crit - Crit
No Crit - No Crit
3/4 combinations have at least one crit, so 75%

I was taught to think of it like a tree, like this. See, in this situation, there are four possible outcomes and three of them give you at least one crit. 3/4 is 75 percent.

This is like the first lecture in a normal statistics class anon, you could watch lectures on yt for free or get a random book, it most likely will cover everything

the only people that use this shit are degenerate gamblers that look at a 0.0002% chance at winning and think "Hmm, those are pretty good odds." then go $100,000 in debt.

write out all possible outcomes on a paper (like a list)
then read the answers one by one and see if it's correct with calculations you can do with what you have on paper

That is literally how it's taught in statistics. Almost everything is about calculating the chance of not getting something and subtracting it from 1.
I mean, you DID pay attention in class, right?

Chance to have no crit is 50% twice.
So .5 * .5, which is .25 or 25%
So the chance to get at least one crit is 75%

Could also be presented as four possible combinations of events with equal likelihood.
Crit - Crit
Crit - No Crit
No Crit - Crit
No Crit - No Crit
3/4 combinations have at least one crit, so 75%

I don't believe in numbers most turn based games give you, they are just smoke and mirrors to make you feel engaged when the game has already decided if your actions succeed or fail at start of the turn.

Gachas don't. They legally can't, there are absolutely obsessed gachatards out there checking all probabilities in popular gachas, looking for someone to sue.

Fire Emblem is actually a pretty good case study in why games lie to you about that shit. It's because you're stupid. >Old Fire Emblem games do true percents on their hit rates. Should be fine, right? >Nope, because negativity bias. When you see a 95% chance to hit you don't think "oh so I will miss one out of every twenty shots", you think "I CAN'T POSSIBLY MISS LOOK HOW HIGH THAT NUMBER IS". When that one in twenty comes around, you get pissed at the game for lying to you, despite it never having lied. >Fire Emblem moves over to double rolls since it aligns better with how people perceive odds, despite the fact that double rolling gives a disproportionate number of mid rolls making high accuracy way too likely to hit and low accuracy way too unlikely to hit.
Games lie to you about the true odds because most players are morons about probability. Pokemon straight up just doesn't lie to you period and people constantly b***h and moan about 90% hit moves like Draco Meteor missing when it matters most. (Granted, Pokemon is still kind of bullshit because there are just so many random occurrences being rolled for in practically everything that you do that the game becomes less about strategy and more about risk management and hoping you don't get fricked by rngesus) Fates had the best probability algorithm don't @ me.

>>Nope, because negativity bias. When you see a 95% chance to hit you don't think "oh so I will miss one out of every twenty shots", you think "I CAN'T POSSIBLY MISS LOOK HOW HIGH THAT NUMBER IS". When that one in twenty comes around, you get pissed at the game for lying to you, despite it never having lied.
It might be because I am autistic. But I don't think like that at all. And I much, much prefer it when the game is honest with me and hate it when it's lying to me.
Frick Fire Emblem for lying. And frick you for assuming I am moronic with percentages.

That's how RNG works in many games, several numbers are rolled in advance from an initial seed.
Some games save the sequence and always give you the same results if you reload, while others get another seed

Yeah. Thing is, most people don't really get true random. Streaks are a thing that happen in pure random systems, but people tend to interpret streaks as not random. So random number systems are made less random so they appear more random to human monkey brains.

Does it at least display the "manipulated" chance to hit ? If it says 50% chance to hit whereas the real %age the game is gonna use is something else that's peak moronation.

No. The manipulation doesn't touch the to hit chance, it's more like, you've missed five shots in a row so your next shot will skip the hit chance directly and just hit. Or this enemy hit its last three shots against you, so its next shot will miss no matter how well positioned it is. Actual numbers aren't right but that's the general idea.

No, it lies with the numbers.
The thing is, people get upset if you give them legit odds, because in your head a 10% chance to miss is lower than 10%. A game with legit rng numbers is darkest dungeon, and people often get upset at how the rng fricks them in that game.
It's also worth noting that the odds are not in the player's favor even with all these buffs to the numbers. Because while your chance to succeed might be greater, you lose way more if you lose than the enemy does if you win. So the odds kinda have to be stacked in favor of the player, because losing one guy is such a monumentally greater loss for you than losing one elite enemy is for the aliens (since they have an infinite supply). The original xcom got away with proper hit chance because in that game the individual soldiers weren't that important, it sucked if you lost one but the far more important thing was how good your tech was, so you could equip a rookie with good shit and he'd be a decent replacement.

Actually your chances of winning the lottery go down the more tickets you buy:
1 ticket, you either win or lose. It's 50/50
2 ticket, now each one is either win or lose so 50/50 and 50/50 that makes 25%
3 ticket, now it's only 1/3 chance of winning (less)
So the more tickets you buy, the worse your odds are!

100% because computers can't roll dice. Computers do not know rabdomity this is why 1% chance in game is like 99 hits and not 9 million like it would be irl.

Tldr computers are moronic Black folk always go for crit builds

probability is the biggest pseudoscience ever >ok but we're calculating events only from THIS POINT ONWARD
just because I crit a second ago doesn't make the next crit not a 50% chance, just because I made 200 crits a minute ago doesn't make the next crit not a 50% chance

Feel free to prove probability wrong. (you cant because its backed by math, that is the entire point, load up a monty hall problem simulator and see for yourself.)

The question isn't "you crit once, does your next attack crit"

It's What is the percentage odds of landing a crit in two attacks if your crit% is 50%. You are flipping a coin twice, what the the odds that you get heads at least once.

The real question is this:
You hit the enemy twice. Your hits have a crit rate of 50%. At least one of your hits was a crit. What is the chance that both of your hits were a crit?

33% because Black person math which doesn't correlate with how shit works in real life but works in lala math lands because semantics and anything goes ~~*in-theory*~~.

>Basically solved already
Yeah, and the answer is 1/4.
morons who insist that CH and HC are separate outcomes desperately want to deny that C(guaranteed)C and CC(guaranteed) aren't even though they follow the exact same logic.
HH is not a factor and shouldn't even be brought up. The answer is and always will be 1/4.

>50% of outcomes already filtered out by the first hit being a regular hit >Of the remaining 50% that crit the first hit, half of those will not get a crit on their second hit
25% they'll both crit.

>final year of studying to become grade school teacher >realize i have forgotten how to do multiplication/division manually
it's literally over for me, bros

Ganker has the youngest userbase by far. They probably just haven't gotten to the advanced lessons in math and just think they're super smart for knowing about the gambler's fallacy despite the fact that the fallacy doesn't apply to this question.

I miss the brief point in time where thirdies thought they learned probability from gachaslop and you could get called a moron by stating a 2% chance doesn't mean a guaranteed win in 50 rolls

its none of those because stacking probability works something like
1/% * 2/% I forget exactly doesnt matter BECAUSE
each probability roll should be decided INDEPENDANTLY not stacking, this is why "impossible probability" coin tosses or dice rolls (6 6s 6 times in a row. i've done this in real life) is possible.
so with that in mind
50/100+50/100=100/200 = 50%

these are literally the dumbest "puzzles" I've ever seen. Like even mentally moronic kids wouldn't take more then 10 seconds to figure these out.
right?

Depends on the game. Ragnarok Online checks for crit first and autohits all crits. World of Warcraft and infinity engine games do a single roll, where a good roll is a crit, ok roll is a hit and bad roll misses. That's the only games I know well enough to comment on, but I'm sure there are some which check hit chance first and then roll crit separately.

Depends on the edition. At least in 3e, only a nat 20 is an automatic hit. So with an extended crit range weapon you can roll a crit but still miss. Unlikely but possible.

this seems wrong, but I don't play 5th edition.
it used to be, roll to hit, 20 is critical success (NOT a crit) then you roll for crit which goes off depending on weapons crit range + keen + weapon master feats
then if you hit you roll damage * crit, or just damage if you didn't crit.

im pretty sure it works this way I played neverwinter nights to death, and made a character that exploits concealment stacking so you have to hit them three separate times to actually hit them once. you basically have to crit to hit them.

It doesn't matter. Why are you getting confused?
Regarding the question in OP its a matter of either crit or no crit. Crit or crit twice is the same in this case

4 weeks ago

Anonymous

yeah and it crits with 50% chance

4 weeks ago

Anonymous

because that's 2 crits not 1

4 weeks ago

Anonymous

the question says "at least" you mouthbreather

4 weeks ago

Anonymous

but you say it's 2 crits, then you say "75% with 1 crit" It's not 75% with 1 crit, it's 50% with 1 crit.
You are the mouthbreather.

>video game gives you in-game quiz on hit rates and stats of attacks and your character in the form of your character attending a course with your fellow NPCs
kino

idk i always turn off the numbers clogging up my screen and just play

Your crit rate is shown on the status/equipment screen. The screen where you're supposed to stare at numbers. Not during traversal or combat.

I'm usually just eyeing how much health bars move.

>DID MY ATTACK DO ANYTHING?

>AM I NOT DYING?

Can i call a friend?

if it's me then 0%, if it's the enemy then 100%

better buy a dog homosexual

you should know better posting this publicly

Oh shit we have an actual smart person in this thread

The only correct answer.

Classic Fire Emblem, the post.

50% you ether crit or you don't

All of those are incorrect, the correct answer is 0% because the game fricking hates you.

Unless it's XB2. Then I just crit every hit unless I'm using shield hammer.

75%

Another way to think about it the chance of getting 2 no crits in a row. This is .5 x .5 = 25% chance of no crits. Therefore, there is a 75% chance of at least one crit

how do you guys do math

in my head usually

I was taught to think of it like a tree, like this. See, in this situation, there are four possible outcomes and three of them give you at least one crit. 3/4 is 75 percent.

Thanks for explaining anon.

It's probability, not real math.

This is like the first lecture in a normal statistics class anon, you could watch lectures on yt for free or get a random book, it most likely will cover everything

the only people that use this shit are degenerate gamblers that look at a 0.0002% chance at winning and think "Hmm, those are pretty good odds." then go $100,000 in debt.

Or, you know, people that might want to know what their crit chance is in a game.

there are only four possible outcomes. how many have a crit?

opposite of crit is not a miss moron

write out all possible outcomes on a paper (like a list)

then read the answers one by one and see if it's correct with calculations you can do with what you have on paper

wasn't educated by diversity hires, feels good

That is literally how it's taught in statistics. Almost everything is about calculating the chance of not getting something and subtracting it from 1.

I mean, you DID pay attention in class, right?

I didn't even pay attention in class I just drew a table of combinations and 75% made sense. These guys must have brain damage

>drawing a table for such a simple question

lol

cishet white male detected

go white genocide yourself LOL

Chance to have no crit is 50% twice.

So .5 * .5, which is .25 or 25%

So the chance to get at least one crit is 75%

Could also be presented as four possible combinations of events with equal likelihood.

Crit - Crit

Crit - No Crit

No Crit - Crit

No Crit - No Crit

3/4 combinations have at least one crit, so 75%

0% since there isn’t a guarantee.

the only correct answer so far

I don't believe in numbers most turn based games give you, they are just smoke and mirrors to make you feel engaged when the game has already decided if your actions succeed or fail at start of the turn.

The realization that approximately half of videograms just straight up lie to you when it comes to probability has been pretty discouraging.

Gachas don't. They legally can't, there are absolutely obsessed gachatards out there checking all probabilities in popular gachas, looking for someone to sue.

Fire Emblem is actually a pretty good case study in why games lie to you about that shit. It's because you're stupid.

>Old Fire Emblem games do true percents on their hit rates. Should be fine, right?

>Nope, because negativity bias. When you see a 95% chance to hit you don't think "oh so I will miss one out of every twenty shots", you think "I CAN'T POSSIBLY MISS LOOK HOW HIGH THAT NUMBER IS". When that one in twenty comes around, you get pissed at the game for lying to you, despite it never having lied.

>Fire Emblem moves over to double rolls since it aligns better with how people perceive odds, despite the fact that double rolling gives a disproportionate number of mid rolls making high accuracy way too likely to hit and low accuracy way too unlikely to hit.

Games lie to you about the true odds because most players are morons about probability. Pokemon straight up just doesn't lie to you period and people constantly b***h and moan about 90% hit moves like Draco Meteor missing when it matters most. (Granted, Pokemon is still kind of bullshit because there are just so many random occurrences being rolled for in practically everything that you do that the game becomes less about strategy and more about risk management and hoping you don't get fricked by rngesus)

Fates had the best probability algorithm don't @ me.

>>Nope, because negativity bias. When you see a 95% chance to hit you don't think "oh so I will miss one out of every twenty shots", you think "I CAN'T POSSIBLY MISS LOOK HOW HIGH THAT NUMBER IS". When that one in twenty comes around, you get pissed at the game for lying to you, despite it never having lied.

It might be because I am autistic. But I don't think like that at all. And I much, much prefer it when the game is honest with me and hate it when it's lying to me.

Frick Fire Emblem for lying. And frick you for assuming I am moronic with percentages.

That's how RNG works in many games, several numbers are rolled in advance from an initial seed.

Some games save the sequence and always give you the same results if you reload, while others get another seed

>XCUM games manipulates RNG if you get too lucky.

They also manipulate rng if you don't get lucky enough

>open RNG game

>it's just NG

Yeah. Thing is, most people don't really get true random. Streaks are a thing that happen in pure random systems, but people tend to interpret streaks as not random. So random number systems are made less random so they appear more random to human monkey brains.

Does it at least display the "manipulated" chance to hit ? If it says 50% chance to hit whereas the real %age the game is gonna use is something else that's peak moronation.

No. The manipulation doesn't touch the to hit chance, it's more like, you've missed five shots in a row so your next shot will skip the hit chance directly and just hit. Or this enemy hit its last three shots against you, so its next shot will miss no matter how well positioned it is. Actual numbers aren't right but that's the general idea.

No, it lies with the numbers.

The thing is, people get upset if you give them legit odds, because in your head a 10% chance to miss is lower than 10%. A game with legit rng numbers is darkest dungeon, and people often get upset at how the rng fricks them in that game.

It's also worth noting that the odds are not in the player's favor even with all these buffs to the numbers. Because while your chance to succeed might be greater, you lose way more if you lose than the enemy does if you win. So the odds kinda have to be stacked in favor of the player, because losing one guy is such a monumentally greater loss for you than losing one elite enemy is for the aliens (since they have an infinite supply). The original xcom got away with proper hit chance because in that game the individual soldiers weren't that important, it sucked if you lost one but the far more important thing was how good your tech was, so you could equip a rookie with good shit and he'd be a decent replacement.

It's like fear and hunger it's the same with coin flip. 2 coins at the same time give you a 75% chance to get the desired result

Useful info for the future.

%A + %B - (%A*%B) is what you should use in these cases.

0.5+0.5-(0.5*0.5) = 1.0 - 0.25 = 0.75

75%.

Simple. You don't need to do big brain logic thinking all the time.

This is also useful for things like % mitigation in MMOs. For example, you activate two cooldowns with -30% and -45% damage reduction.

(-0.3)+(-0.45)-[-(0.3)*(-0.45)] = -0.75 + 0.135 = -0.565 or -56% actual damage reduction.

50% + 50% = 100%. your welcome OP

50%. Either you will or you won't

I'm going to play the lottery today. 50% chance I'll be a millionaire. Either I win or I lose, right?

Correct.

that's right

buy two lottery tickets for 100% chance of winning!

Actually your chances of winning the lottery go down the more tickets you buy:

1 ticket, you either win or lose. It's 50/50

2 ticket, now each one is either win or lose so 50/50 and 50/50 that makes 25%

3 ticket, now it's only 1/3 chance of winning (less)

So the more tickets you buy, the worse your odds are!

I'm going to get anally pegged by a dildo tonight. There's a 50% chance I will get pregnant from it, either I will or I won't.

But there is a 100% chance that you are gay

ehh pass

look up Binomial Distribution and Hypergeometric Distribution it's pretty cool

100% because computers can't roll dice. Computers do not know rabdomity this is why 1% chance in game is like 99 hits and not 9 million like it would be irl.

Tldr computers are moronic Black folk always go for crit builds

honestly the best explanation

this is literally middle school math wtf guys

The majority of Ganker users are in middle school though.

I was better at math when I was in middle school than I am now, unironically. Those teachers who said that I'd be using math all my life lied to me.

They assumed you've have a job and not be a neet for life

I do have a job, what the math teachers got wrong is that they pretended that everyone wouldn't have access to a calculator whenever they wanted.

probability is the biggest pseudoscience ever

>ok but we're calculating events only from THIS POINT ONWARD

just because I crit a second ago doesn't make the next crit not a 50% chance, just because I made 200 crits a minute ago doesn't make the next crit not a 50% chance

Anyone studying statistics agrees with you. There's an entire fallacy regarding that.

Feel free to prove probability wrong. (you cant because its backed by math, that is the entire point, load up a monty hall problem simulator and see for yourself.)

The question isn't "you crit once, does your next attack crit"

It's What is the percentage odds of landing a crit in two attacks if your crit% is 50%. You are flipping a coin twice, what the the odds that you get heads at least once.

I wouldn't worry about the math, you need to work on basic reading comprehension, fricking Black person moron.

>anon is dangerously close to discovering that the wording of the question is extremely specific in statistics

75%.

100% chances of me flipping my desk if I miss

It's random, every time you try it's a 50% chance, simple as, think of it as a dice

CC

CN

NC

NN

75%

The real question is this:

You hit the enemy twice. Your hits have a crit rate of 50%. At least one of your hits was a crit. What is the chance that both of your hits were a crit?

>Mfw endgame Rex has native crit rate of 65%.

Smart anon.

This isnt an interesting question, this isn't the monty hall problem you want it to be. The answer in this case in 50%

bertrand's box moment

Anon, I need you to go draw out all 4 outcomes, cross out the double miss, then divide the count of double crits by the count of remaining outcomes.

I don't get it. 3 divided by 1 is still 1.

Frick it, I kneel. Grognards won

33% because Black person math which doesn't correlate with how shit works in real life but works in lala math lands because semantics and anything goes ~~*in-theory*~~.

>first hit is the "free" crit

only the second is rolled so it's 50%

>second hit is the "free" crit

only the first is rolled so it's 50%

Basically solved already, but since nobody has stated the answer yet:

Let H be Hit, let C be Crit. In two hits with 50% crit chance, there are four outcomes:

HH

HC

CH

CC

Three of these outcomes have "at least one crit" and only one of those three crits twice.

The answer is 1/3.

>Basically solved already

Yeah, and the answer is 1/4.

morons who insist that CH and HC are separate outcomes desperately want to deny that C(guaranteed)C and CC(guaranteed) aren't even though they follow the exact same logic.

HH is not a factor and shouldn't even be brought up. The answer is and always will be 1/4.

Don't you mean 1/2 since it's 2 out of 4 outcomes?

I already answered it Black person

>50% of outcomes already filtered out by the first hit being a regular hit

>Of the remaining 50% that crit the first hit, half of those will not get a crit on their second hit

25% they'll both crit.

>25% chance for nocrit, 50% for crit, 25% for critcrit

>remove 25% for nocrit

>adjust the other values until they add up to 100%

25 x 1.32~ = 33~% chance to critcrit

50 x 1.32~ = 66~% chance to crit

Its 50/50

Either it crits or it doesnt

There's 4 scenarios, all are equally probable. 3 of the 4 scenarios are favorable for us, 1 isn't, so the odds of at least one crit are 75%.

There's no right answer here because probabilities don't work like this

>final year of studying to become grade school teacher

>realize i have forgotten how to do multiplication/division manually

it's literally over for me, bros

Do they even teach division where the denominator is greater than 10 in grade school?

yeah they even teach division with decimal numbers here

50%

Just because you roll twice doesn't mean the chance changes.

The chance for each hit individually doesn't change but the chance of critting twice in a row is not the same as criting once within 2 attempts.

>this whole fricking thread

what is this "probability isnt real" shit? whats the probability these anons are just morons?

Ganker has the youngest userbase by far. They probably just haven't gotten to the advanced lessons in math and just think they're super smart for knowing about the gambler's fallacy despite the fact that the fallacy doesn't apply to this question.

66%

I miss the brief point in time where thirdies thought they learned probability from gachaslop and you could get called a moron by stating a 2% chance doesn't mean a guaranteed win in 50 rolls

>100% chance of OP being a homosexual

how can there be a partial win thats not how coinflips work you either did or didnt there is no 3/4 head

Probability of getting no crits in 2 hits = 0.25, therefore getting atleast one crit in 2 hits is 1 - 0.25 which gives 75%

If this was Xcom you get -100% hit and crit and you force every alien to rape you in one turn

If this question were written by a native english speaker it wouldn't be confusing.

None of those.

how about i just pay for 100% crit for every hit i do

its none of those because stacking probability works something like

1/% * 2/% I forget exactly doesnt matter BECAUSE

each probability roll should be decided INDEPENDANTLY not stacking, this is why "impossible probability" coin tosses or dice rolls (6 6s 6 times in a row. i've done this in real life) is possible.

so with that in mind

50/100+50/100=100/200 = 50%

these are literally the dumbest "puzzles" I've ever seen. Like even mentally moronic kids wouldn't take more then 10 seconds to figure these out.

right?

You know there are anons that were filtered there. Don't even pretend.

what do you expect from nopon?

classic x-com

trick question, it's less than 75% since a miss isn't a crit

Most games roll for crits first and if it crits, it's an automatic hit.

Pretty sure you have that in reverse. Roll for hit then if hit roll for crit.

Depends on the game. Ragnarok Online checks for crit first and autohits all crits. World of Warcraft and infinity engine games do a single roll, where a good roll is a crit, ok roll is a hit and bad roll misses. That's the only games I know well enough to comment on, but I'm sure there are some which check hit chance first and then roll crit separately.

DnD systems have crits count as automatic hits. Sometimes you have to 'roll to confirm' so it doesn't always do critical damage, but it always hits.

isn't dnd crit always a 20 (plus 19 if you're a specific class)

Depends on the edition. At least in 3e, only a nat 20 is an automatic hit. So with an extended crit range weapon you can roll a crit but still miss. Unlikely but possible.

this seems wrong, but I don't play 5th edition.

it used to be, roll to hit, 20 is critical success (NOT a crit) then you roll for crit which goes off depending on weapons crit range + keen + weapon master feats

then if you hit you roll damage * crit, or just damage if you didn't crit.

im pretty sure it works this way I played neverwinter nights to death, and made a character that exploits concealment stacking so you have to hit them three separate times to actually hit them once. you basically have to crit to hit them.

How many times does Double Spinning Edge version FR hit?

no 50% of those contain 1 crit

3 out of 4 = 75%

first one contains 2 crits not 1

we don't care about it happening twice. We only care if it happens more than 0 times. And it happens more than 0 times 75% of the time

yeah but the first one have two crits not one

It doesn't matter. Why are you getting confused?

Regarding the question in OP its a matter of either crit or no crit. Crit or crit twice is the same in this case

yeah and it crits with 50% chance

because that's 2 crits not 1

the question says "at least" you mouthbreather

but you say it's 2 crits, then you say "75% with 1 crit" It's not 75% with 1 crit, it's 50% with 1 crit.

You are the mouthbreather.

that's 50% moron

75%

50%

you either get the crit or you don't.

You either do or you don''t 2 times though. Considering all outcomes its 75%

But you're hitting the crit, or you aren't. Doesn't matter how many times you're trying to, you either do it, or you don't.

flip the coin, anon.

i've played enough gacha to know this equation by heart

number of attempts n

probability p

1 - (1 - p)^n = chance of success after n attempts

or if you just use probability of failure out of the gate

1 - f^n = chance of success after n attempts

1 - .5 ^ 2 = 1 - .25 = .75 or 75% chance of at least one success after two attempts

50% you are idiot if you answered anythyng else.

25% chance of no crits.

Therefore, 75% chance of at least one.

Simple as.

>video game gives you in-game quiz on hit rates and stats of attacks and your character in the form of your character attending a course with your fellow NPCs

kino

75%

What happens when your hit successfully lands but the target is using Hamedo

>puzzle requires a PHD to solve

B1 = 2B3

B3 = B2 - 128

1600 = B1 + B2 + B3

1600 = (2B3) + (B3 + 128) + B3

1600 = 4B3 + 128

1472 = 4B3

368 = B3

736 = B1

496 = B2

496 + 736 + 368 = 1600

this filtered MILLIONS

6 * Agamamnus * 9 / Igon