It's happening, anons.
Between high budget licensed LPs like Suicide Squad bombing, and the ones that succeed like Spiderman barely breaking even, it won't be long. Bethesda is outstaying its welcome. China and EU are clamping down on microtransactions and lootboxes.
Videogames have been in a bubble that's been growing for 30 years now, and that momentum doesn't stay forever - if anything, it's overdue.
Who do you think will be the first big developer to go?
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epic games
Sega will unironically rope after their billion dollar game flops
Hope it happens, AAA needs to crash.
Nothing ever happens.
It won't happen barring a global recession but IF something does independent of that, it will be in the aftermath GTA6 releases. Rockstar is betting more than $2 billion on this and counting on a return of at least $6, if this isn't a watershed moment for the AAA industry I don't know what will be.
>Rockstar is betting more than $2 billion on this and counting on a return of at least $6
are they counting it to get profits ON RELEASE?
I am sure it will be a great game an all but there's no way it will make that much money on release unless the online mode comes together with the single player and people spend gangbusters on it immediately.
GTA V made 815 million in the first 24 hours, 1 billion in the first 3, and 8 billion lifetime.
*first 3 days
For reference, Genshin was one of the most successful games ever released a d it took 2 years to reach 4 billion.
>It won't happen barring a global recession
Have you seen where we are?
Nta but nope. I haven't seen where we are. You gonna share or am I supposed to look around for myself. It looks the same as a t ever was out my window.
Here is a good video on it. Short answer is we are repeating the 1970s
>Gold going up signals inflation
>Oil going down signals recession
Add in govt debt potentially going bust too. The Fed is also cutting rates when inflation is high which is exactly what happened in the 70s. It was solved by driving interest rates to almost 20% and keeping them high for years
https://x.com/profstonge/status/1735651273284694297?s=20
If anything, even if it succeeds I hope that it puts a bar so high that everyone gives up on the idea of making anything similar in the future. But if it makes 4 billion dollars in profit, I can see companies really wanting to chase that and then bankrupting themselves.
Yeah that Sony leak calling "100 million dollars" a mid-range budget was a real eye-opener to how easily things could all come crashing down.
2 more weeks
Not surprising if we have 1970s style stagflation. AAA can’t survive with shrinking sales and cost going up every year.
worst case scenario, ballooned movie tier budget games disappear and the world is better for it. Anything less is in no danger.
We’ll probably see a shit ton of delays, bankruptcies (these were way up in 2023) and games getting cancelled. No one is transitioning into mid size games. Only the Japanese seem poised for this since they make quite a few. It’s going to be great in the long term but there are going to be some years we’re almost nothing comes out.
japan didn't go full "always big-budget need more money than sale price"
It helped that the Japanese market was smaller and more handheld focused. Even a cluster frick like Square Enix will be OK with games like Octopath and Braverly Default.
Been doing some research into this. I think Halo 2 has a budget of 40 million. It was rare to see a development budget of over 100M. Now that’s considered mid-sized. I think games are going back to how they were in the PS2 days. Smaller more focused titles with a market that appeals to more dedicated consumers. Though there is going to be a frick ton of pain to get there. Expect Redditors to cry about the state of games.
going back to focusing on making actual fun games over money and appearance would be great
>transitioning
Only a small fraction of games were ever that big to begin with.
We had way more mid-sized games coming out. Most of the companies that made them died with HD and the 2008 Recession. Now it’s AAA and indie.
A lot did, but more of the bigger side of what's now considered indie would've been thought of as AA in the past.
Things will stay the same. Private companies will continue to make games and public companies will continue to make advertisements. They may or may not suffer accordingly.
I'll believe it if microsoft actually does go third party
two more weeks
>THE VIDYA CRASH IS COMING says increasingly depressed and jaded Gankerirgins for the 3648th time
If there is a video game crash the mobile market will make it out unscathed.
Not real videogames
Just very elaborated pachinko machines
>It's happening, anons.