Grinding like this is not the intended way to play the game. If it has a low chance to spawn you're not meant to get it, one random player in x% is meant to.
>No, um, you can't give players different and unique experiences because um....YOU JUST CAN'T. it's NOT. FAIR. that some random IDIOT gets the flaming sword of hemorrhoidicus! I NEED it so that I can kill the boss I've killed 11 times 1% faster. I just HATE having this problem (that i created) This game SUCKS!
>UGH you DON'T GET IT, it's the DEV'S INTENDED DESIGN to have other player's playthroughs be MORE MAGICAL and COOLER than others, grinding removes the EPICNESS of that one guy's playthrough even if it means all you get is STINKY GEAR
I'm not even a lucklet IRL but please fricking have a nice day, your stupidity is fricking infuriating.
not really, it creates items that are truly rare and unique. also drop chance is literally the only way you can make certain items be more difficult to obtain than the others, without making your game meme-level difficult
The question is bad because it's possible it will just never drop. Even after a trillion tries there would be an infinitesimal tiny chance to never drop
demetrius got it on the first drop and killed 48 more just for fun because he's a lucker dog who's shit at the game and those guys always get the drops real quick FRICK YOU DEMETRIUS
There's a 5% chance that, when the game's rng decides to pull a drop from the special loot table, it is instead pulled from a upgraded version called the epic loot table.
There is no determinate number of kills that it takes for him to get one, because one roll does not affect the outcome of the next, and the odds are rolled on the moment the fire imp is killed. The chance of the epic fire sword dropping is the same now as it was when Demetrius started. Also, Demetrius, go to the bathroom.
i think it's meant to represent randomness >if you always pick the left, you'll win on the 3rd attempt >always pick right, you'll win on the 2nd >pick left, center, right, you'll never win
I'll prove it Black person
in 5 replies I'll get a post ending in a number divisible by 5
Not within 5 replies. You didnt your 5th reply to have a post number divisible by 5. Also you made more posts, posts which were not replies. You failed your own parameters. gay.
he has to kill at least 459 imps so that it's a 99% chance at least one drops the fire sword. so my answer is 410 more imps and he realistically should get the sword eventually
i'll solve it for you: find out how to game the system. kill more than one fire imp at once, find a way to increase your RNG (most of these games have a luck system that can be buffed somehow), find a way to AoE attack them while killing individual imps to expedite the process. this isn't about getting one fire sword, this is about getting as many as possible before you get bored.
>t. i will avoid grinding for as long as possible, but when a game forces me to grind, i will grind until i have multiples of the item i want
>killing enemies increases the chances of them dropping an item, based on the percentage drop chance they have >killing 50 enemies will eventually guarantee you a drop that only has a 2% chance of dropping >it resets after this
Pity mechanics like that are already common in gacha games. Like if you don't get any mega super ultra rare cards after 10 pulls you get a garunteed one or some such
no because then it's no longer rng, there's a fixed cap on how much effort you have to put in. something better would be
.1 * 4 * 10 = cap
percent chance in decimal * rarity grade from 1 to whatever your max rarity is * pity multiplier
this gives you a lot more control. higher rarity items can have a higher integter for rarity grade, even non-linear, and your pity multiplier can be literally whatever. this way, your players can look at an item and get a rough idea of what kind of grind they're signing up for. >"okay, this is a rare item not super rare or legendary, and it's a reasonably popular item, so even though the drop rate is 1% i know i probably won't have to kill much over 150 or 200 to be absolutely sure i get it" >meanwhile you've set the pity multiplier and rarity grade so they're guaranteed to get it by 300 even though your drop rate should yield the item far sooner than that by straight probability before any stat modifiers are incorporated
you could take the formula way farther too, maybe find a way to weight how luck stats or player level work into it. the sky is the limit here
I don't see a problem with fixed caps. As someone who played Phantasy Star Online, there is nothing in my heart but disdain for whoever decided that a rare blade needs a 1/7500000 chance of dropping.
Personally the loot percentage should remain the same, but there should be a way to get an even better piece of gear after killing ~10,000 of that enemy. Luck should never eclipse dedication.
I have a stats degree. I haven't read any other posts in this thread. >Fire imps have a 1 in 10 chance of rolling the special loot table. >The epic fire sword has a 10% chance of spawning on the epic loot table.
Assuming the "special" and "epic" loot tables are the same, it is a 1/100 chance of any individual imp drops the epic fire sword. >Demetrius killed 49 fire imps
Irrelevant information. From the information given, each fire imp kill is statistically independent from any other fire imp kill, meaning the number of previous fire imp kills has no effect on the chance of any future fire imp dropping the sword. This is the gambler's fallacy, an incorrect belief that, if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa). >How many more until he gets the fire sword.
Impossible to predict. You can predict at which point his odds increase to 50%, or 75%, or 99.9999%, but the number imp kill that will result in the sword drop cannot be predicted from the information given. The chance remains 1% that any imp that is killed drops the sword.
Statsbro, what about the chance of a 1% event occurring within an X amount of tries?
Like, if you attempt something X amount of times, you have a y% of that 1% event happening at least once
imagine be a try-hard trannie to spend your time "calculating" your drop chance, while true Giga Chads just google "sword drop chance" and get their answer in an instance
This is worded poorly, it's a 1% chance but makes no mention of guaranteed drops, so "how many more" has no meaning; with even a 50% chance it's theoretically possible to do 10,000 runs with no drop. That said, his chances even out in 51 rolls.
>How many times more
I'll bite, statistically it's the same every time, though the chances of not getting it after repeated attempts slightly lowers every time (0.99x0.99x0.99.....) so THEORETICALLY it'd get to a point where the chance of getting one is more likely than not getting it X times in a row, though again that's more on a meme big scale thing where each isolated attempt is still 1% regardless of how many attempts previously. what frustrates me is that there are people who will say 51 more tries untill you get it
>rng
It's all luck
If you are lucky you can get the loot even after the first kill. Or you will never get it because rng takes a huge dump on you while twerking.
The probability for the epic loot table isn't know and we do not know if more tables are present, but if we assume there are only two and you always roll at least one of them then the probability of the epic loot table is "9 in 10" or 0.90
Multiplying that with the 0.10 chance of the weapon dropping from that table gives us the chance of dropping it on a single kill:
0.90 x 0.10 = 0.09
This means a 0.91 chance of not dropping it and with that we can calculate how likely it is that a weapon hasn't been dropped after x kills with the formula: 0.91 ^ x
0.91 ^ 49 = 0.00984... so at this point the chance of not getting it is less than 1%
to get less than 0.1% chance of it not dropping, 74 kills would be needed
0.91 ^ 74 = 0.000931...
But you can never guarentee it to be 0% to not drop or 100% to drop, no matter how often you kill the imp.
(If the loot tables are actually the same and the chance to drop the sword is 1%, then the breakpoints would be 459 kills and 688 kills respectively)
None.
There's a 1-in-10 chance of rolling the "special loot table", but the firesword only appears on the "epic loot table".
Demetrius needs to find some enemies who'll roll on the epic lot table.
statistically he should have it by 250 kills
chance of repetition goes up with every new value, but it rarely gets worse than a two and a half times the odds
>going for the fire sword
it's n00b bait, you get a better one in a shop after beating the fire boss, and if you didnt run away from fight, you should have enough cash to buy it right off the bat
61 on average. We were never told whether any of the 49 imps he already killed dropped the sword so this is also part of our probability space. The chance that one of them did is around 39%, and in that case no more imps have to be killed. Otherwise the expected number of imps to kill is 100, which leaves you overall with the expected number of 61 imps to kill.
The chest contains 0.3 keys on average. This means you get about 4 tries to open the chest.
You have 99% chance of not getting the amulet. If you have 4 tries, you have .99^4=96.05% chance of not getting the amulet. So, your odds are about 4%.
Naive math says that if expected value of getting an amulet is P, then P=0.01+0.1*2P+0.1*P -> P=1/70 amulets per attempt, therefore for 4 attempts the probability would be 1-(69/70)^4=5.59%
Can probably check if it's true with Monte-Carlo method, but too lazy to do that.
Prob of getting an amulet in all the possible outcomes of 1 starting key is x >x = 0.01 + 0.1x + 0.1(1- (1-x)(1-x) ) >(1-x)^2 is the chance of not getting the amulet in 2 keys hence (1-(1-x)^2) is the chance of getting at least 1 amulet in 2 keys
Solving for x you get >0.1x^2+0.7x-0.01=0
Ignoring the negative solution we get >x approx 0.0142567
For 3 starting keys we work out the chance of getting at least 1 amulet >(1 - (1-x)^3) approx 0.042
So a 4.2% chance ish
This is xcom so I actually miss inserting the first key and break it, then on my second attempt I get the fish, which leaps out of the chest and crits my head and I die
He isn't any closer to getting the drop than when he initially started. Welcome to RNG hell homie
I play Diablo 2 and OSRS. You just have to accept the fact that 2 things are true
1. you will get it eventually if you keep pulling the casino lever
2. you aren't owed anything and RNG can be a cruel b***h
for every moron that got the super cool fire sword on the first kill, there's a dude who's dry on his 400th. or something close to that
Each Imp has a small chance of dropping the sword, there's no way to know how many he'll need to kill to get it, he could theoretically just be unlucky and NEVER get the sword. It's like saying "how many dice do you need to throw to guarantee landing on a 5". You'll always have a 1/6th chance of landing on a 5 on every individual throw, you'll never reach 100% probability of landing on 5, so it's impossible to determine a fixed number of throws required to 100% land a 5.
pass, stacking probabilities treat the math like they chain together when they are actually separate rolls EVERY time and I don't give a frick what some dead guy has to say to the contrary because its not how it works in rng strings made by computers.
Since the process starts anew with each imp, we can assume it's independently rolled each time.
Thus, the probability that he does not get the epic fire sword after n dead imps is 0.99^n
At 49 fire imps, that's 61%. There is a 39% chance that he already has the fire sword.
At 100 fire imps, that would be 36.6%. Now, there is a 63.3% chance he has the fire sword.
He only has a 90% chance of getting it after killing 230 fire imps, and a 95% chance after killing 300.
The general formula for a certain outcome with probability x after a number of attempts (y) to occur once (z), assuming x is the same every attempt, is 1-(1-x)^y=z. If you have two sequential conditions it's simply a matter of replacing x with xa*x (in this case, the chance of the table and the sword spawning respectively), and in turn substitute x for 1-(1-xb)^y. The new formula would be 1-(1-xa(1-(1-xb)^y))^y=z, with the conditions xa=xb=.1, y=49, wich is equal to ~.994092 or a 99.4% chance for short
Forgot to add: there's no number of attempts where the chance it will have dropped once is 1. Theoretically, you could say the chance is 1 once the probability reaches >[.9 with 4,294,967,295 repeating nines], since that's the largest number of decimals you can have in a 64-bit system (assuming the system is dealing with no other computations)
real answer is from an hour or two to infinity
math is gay and probability means absolutely nothing other than giving very general idea about if wasting time on [thing] is even worth it
>odds of getting it on the first try
1/100 , rare but you hear it happen to someone constantly >Odds of getting TWO back to back on the first farm
1/10.000 , a truly rare event, people can play the game constantly nonstop without seeing such odds, but cases have been recorded.
So, out there, there is the probabilistic reverse equivalent of winning the lottery who has killed it a thousand times with no loot.
Grinding like this is not the intended way to play the game. If it has a low chance to spawn you're not meant to get it, one random player in x% is meant to.
1% is a pretty good chance though
Sounds like bad game design.
>No, um, you can't give players different and unique experiences because um....YOU JUST CAN'T. it's NOT. FAIR. that some random IDIOT gets the flaming sword of hemorrhoidicus! I NEED it so that I can kill the boss I've killed 11 times 1% faster. I just HATE having this problem (that i created) This game SUCKS!
>UGH you DON'T GET IT, it's the DEV'S INTENDED DESIGN to have other player's playthroughs be MORE MAGICAL and COOLER than others, grinding removes the EPICNESS of that one guy's playthrough even if it means all you get is STINKY GEAR
I'm not even a lucklet IRL but please fricking have a nice day, your stupidity is fricking infuriating.
not really, it creates items that are truly rare and unique. also drop chance is literally the only way you can make certain items be more difficult to obtain than the others, without making your game meme-level difficult
The question is bad because it's possible it will just never drop. Even after a trillion tries there would be an infinitesimal tiny chance to never drop
The real answer is somewhere between 0% and 100%.
demetrius got it on the first drop and killed 48 more just for fun because he's a lucker dog who's shit at the game and those guys always get the drops real quick FRICK YOU DEMETRIUS
What's the relationship between the special loot table and the epic loot table?
there isn't one. and demetrius never got his sword.
but, if they were the same loot table a 1% drop only has like a 40% chance to drop in first 50 kills
You need to use a cash shop consumable to roll on the epic or legendary loot table.
There's a 5% chance that, when the game's rng decides to pull a drop from the special loot table, it is instead pulled from a upgraded version called the epic loot table.
how much magic find does demetrius have?
There is no determinate number of kills that it takes for him to get one, because one roll does not affect the outcome of the next, and the odds are rolled on the moment the fire imp is killed. The chance of the epic fire sword dropping is the same now as it was when Demetrius started.
Also, Demetrius, go to the bathroom.
>one roll does not affect the outcome of the next
I see you never played slots before buddy
Slots aren't truly random since the owner manually sets payout ratio quotas.
>1 in 10 and then 1 in 10
clearly 1 in 100 so 51 more imps and he's guaranteed to get it
>probability = guaranteed
what the frick am I reading
a person susceptible to a gambling addiction
Why are reality for 1st and 2nd attempt swapped?
i think it's meant to represent randomness
>if you always pick the left, you'll win on the 3rd attempt
>always pick right, you'll win on the 2nd
>pick left, center, right, you'll never win
>t. moron
I'll prove it Black person
in 5 replies I'll get a post ending in a number divisible by 5
4 more
3 more
2 more
See, point proven
No it wasnt. You said in 5 replies.
Not within 5 replies. You didnt your 5th reply to have a post number divisible by 5. Also you made more posts, posts which were not replies. You failed your own parameters. gay.
Not if I get your 5 first
Uh oh, looks like you're a huge moronic homosexual now. You should probably commit not feeling so good
bump for science
I already did
see
no you wont
Hi im just here to frick with you
based guarantee chad, random chance ridditors on sue of site watch
Independent of ZFC
he has to kill at least 459 imps so that it's a 99% chance at least one drops the fire sword. so my answer is 410 more imps and he realistically should get the sword eventually
Demetrius sounds like an unlucky b***h, he'll probably need over 600 kills
I would get it on my first kill though
Prove it. Roll triples on your reply to this post if you're so lucky.
I thought trips were removed from Ganker so now people need to check my 5s instead
i'll solve it for you: find out how to game the system. kill more than one fire imp at once, find a way to increase your RNG (most of these games have a luck system that can be buffed somehow), find a way to AoE attack them while killing individual imps to expedite the process. this isn't about getting one fire sword, this is about getting as many as possible before you get bored.
>t. i will avoid grinding for as long as possible, but when a game forces me to grind, i will grind until i have multiples of the item i want
I cast Esoteric Knowledge and make a wisdom saving throw
2 more, either he gets it or he don't which means there is a 50% chance, 2 * 50% = 100%
0% since Demetrius doesnt know how to forge
>killing enemies increases the chances of them dropping an item, based on the percentage drop chance they have
>killing 50 enemies will eventually guarantee you a drop that only has a 2% chance of dropping
>it resets after this
Would this fix the RNG problem?
Pity mechanics like that are already common in gacha games. Like if you don't get any mega super ultra rare cards after 10 pulls you get a garunteed one or some such
no because then it's no longer rng, there's a fixed cap on how much effort you have to put in. something better would be
.1 * 4 * 10 = cap
percent chance in decimal * rarity grade from 1 to whatever your max rarity is * pity multiplier
this gives you a lot more control. higher rarity items can have a higher integter for rarity grade, even non-linear, and your pity multiplier can be literally whatever. this way, your players can look at an item and get a rough idea of what kind of grind they're signing up for.
>"okay, this is a rare item not super rare or legendary, and it's a reasonably popular item, so even though the drop rate is 1% i know i probably won't have to kill much over 150 or 200 to be absolutely sure i get it"
>meanwhile you've set the pity multiplier and rarity grade so they're guaranteed to get it by 300 even though your drop rate should yield the item far sooner than that by straight probability before any stat modifiers are incorporated
you could take the formula way farther too, maybe find a way to weight how luck stats or player level work into it. the sky is the limit here
I don't see a problem with fixed caps. As someone who played Phantasy Star Online, there is nothing in my heart but disdain for whoever decided that a rare blade needs a 1/7500000 chance of dropping.
Personally the loot percentage should remain the same, but there should be a way to get an even better piece of gear after killing ~10,000 of that enemy. Luck should never eclipse dedication.
idk like 1000
ur falling pun not intended for gambler's fallacy
thanks for reminding me that i don't really want to play wow again
Demetrius, get off the game, go to the bathroom and take a shit. NOW!
n-n-nuhyeh
At 99% chance of not getting the sword, the probability of kill 49 and not getting it is 0.99^49 = 0.6111 or 61%
It's 50/50 that you will get the sword by the 69th kill
(0.99^69=0.4998)
69 more to get past a 50% chance of getting it.
And this is NOT the funny meme number I'm being serious.
None because the special loot table is not the epic loot table.
He's never going to get it.
0% since fire imps only roll on the special loot table, not the epic loot table
I have a stats degree. I haven't read any other posts in this thread.
>Fire imps have a 1 in 10 chance of rolling the special loot table.
>The epic fire sword has a 10% chance of spawning on the epic loot table.
Assuming the "special" and "epic" loot tables are the same, it is a 1/100 chance of any individual imp drops the epic fire sword.
>Demetrius killed 49 fire imps
Irrelevant information. From the information given, each fire imp kill is statistically independent from any other fire imp kill, meaning the number of previous fire imp kills has no effect on the chance of any future fire imp dropping the sword. This is the gambler's fallacy, an incorrect belief that, if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa).
>How many more until he gets the fire sword.
Impossible to predict. You can predict at which point his odds increase to 50%, or 75%, or 99.9999%, but the number imp kill that will result in the sword drop cannot be predicted from the information given. The chance remains 1% that any imp that is killed drops the sword.
You can stop posting in this kuso thread now.
Statsbro, what about the chance of a 1% event occurring within an X amount of tries?
Like, if you attempt something X amount of times, you have a y% of that 1% event happening at least once
Inverse probability to the power of X tries.
1 - (.99)^x
So for instance, the probability we get the sword after 10 tries is
= 1 - (.99)^10
= 0.095
= 9.5%
imagine be a try-hard trannie to spend your time "calculating" your drop chance, while true Giga Chads just google "sword drop chance" and get their answer in an instance
This is worded poorly, it's a 1% chance but makes no mention of guaranteed drops, so "how many more" has no meaning; with even a 50% chance it's theoretically possible to do 10,000 runs with no drop. That said, his chances even out in 51 rolls.
every imp you kill is just 50/50 it drops or it doesn't
math nerds overcomplicate everything with fake imaginary numbers
I always win at Monopoly with this strat since it makes half of my rolls 12s
why does it matter that he killed 49 imps?
those imps had families
>How many times more
I'll bite, statistically it's the same every time, though the chances of not getting it after repeated attempts slightly lowers every time (0.99x0.99x0.99.....) so THEORETICALLY it'd get to a point where the chance of getting one is more likely than not getting it X times in a row, though again that's more on a meme big scale thing where each isolated attempt is still 1% regardless of how many attempts previously. what frustrates me is that there are people who will say 51 more tries untill you get it
>rng
It's all luck
If you are lucky you can get the loot even after the first kill. Or you will never get it because rng takes a huge dump on you while twerking.
Next year we can celebrate twenty years of troll statistics here on Ganker.
He'll never get the sword because the imps never let him roll on the epic loot table. They only let him roll on the special loot table.
The probability for the epic loot table isn't know and we do not know if more tables are present, but if we assume there are only two and you always roll at least one of them then the probability of the epic loot table is "9 in 10" or 0.90
Multiplying that with the 0.10 chance of the weapon dropping from that table gives us the chance of dropping it on a single kill:
0.90 x 0.10 = 0.09
This means a 0.91 chance of not dropping it and with that we can calculate how likely it is that a weapon hasn't been dropped after x kills with the formula: 0.91 ^ x
0.91 ^ 49 = 0.00984... so at this point the chance of not getting it is less than 1%
to get less than 0.1% chance of it not dropping, 74 kills would be needed
0.91 ^ 74 = 0.000931...
But you can never guarentee it to be 0% to not drop or 100% to drop, no matter how often you kill the imp.
(If the loot tables are actually the same and the chance to drop the sword is 1%, then the breakpoints would be 459 kills and 688 kills respectively)
Due to the fricking moronic wording of your shitpost it could be 1, could be never, and could be every number in between.
sex with kurisu
I have 100% odds of rolling this 5
delete your post
None.
There's a 1-in-10 chance of rolling the "special loot table", but the firesword only appears on the "epic loot table".
Demetrius needs to find some enemies who'll roll on the epic lot table.
statistically he should have it by 250 kills
chance of repetition goes up with every new value, but it rarely gets worse than a two and a half times the odds
(1 in 10)(10% of 100)/49 fire imps
1 x 10% = .1
10 x 100 = 1,000
.1 x 49 = 4.9
.1 x 1,000 = 100
100/4.9 = 20.4 fire imps
quite shocked no one knows that its 50 / 50
If it was 50 / 50 then he would have already gotten 49 of them.
wrong, he's merely been unlucky 49 times in a row which is a 0.000000000000178% chance
1% chance. The chance doesn't go up or down based off of how many you kill. Each one has a 1% chance to give you what you want.
>going for the fire sword
it's n00b bait, you get a better one in a shop after beating the fire boss, and if you didnt run away from fight, you should have enough cash to buy it right off the bat
61 on average. We were never told whether any of the 49 imps he already killed dropped the sword so this is also part of our probability space. The chance that one of them did is around 39%, and in that case no more imps have to be killed. Otherwise the expected number of imps to kill is 100, which leaves you overall with the expected number of 61 imps to kill.
its 50/50 every time
The chest contains 0.3 keys on average. This means you get about 4 tries to open the chest.
You have 99% chance of not getting the amulet. If you have 4 tries, you have .99^4=96.05% chance of not getting the amulet. So, your odds are about 4%.
Naive math says that if expected value of getting an amulet is P, then P=0.01+0.1*2P+0.1*P -> P=1/70 amulets per attempt, therefore for 4 attempts the probability would be 1-(69/70)^4=5.59%
Can probably check if it's true with Monte-Carlo method, but too lazy to do that.
Forgot that we start with 3 keys, so it would be 4.22%
3[.01+(.1*2*.01)+(.1*.01)] x 100% = 3.9%
actually this is wrong. I forgot to account for the fact that new keys can yield more keys
Prob of getting an amulet in all the possible outcomes of 1 starting key is x
>x = 0.01 + 0.1x + 0.1(1- (1-x)(1-x) )
>(1-x)^2 is the chance of not getting the amulet in 2 keys hence (1-(1-x)^2) is the chance of getting at least 1 amulet in 2 keys
Solving for x you get
>0.1x^2+0.7x-0.01=0
Ignoring the negative solution we get
>x approx 0.0142567
For 3 starting keys we work out the chance of getting at least 1 amulet
>(1 - (1-x)^3) approx 0.042
So a 4.2% chance ish
50%
you either get the amulet, or you dont
This is xcom so I actually miss inserting the first key and break it, then on my second attempt I get the fish, which leaps out of the chest and crits my head and I die
10% is really high, so if he doesn't get it after 100, he should uninstall.
He isn't any closer to getting the drop than when he initially started. Welcome to RNG hell homie
I play Diablo 2 and OSRS. You just have to accept the fact that 2 things are true
1. you will get it eventually if you keep pulling the casino lever
2. you aren't owed anything and RNG can be a cruel b***h
for every moron that got the super cool fire sword on the first kill, there's a dude who's dry on his 400th. or something close to that
Each Imp has a small chance of dropping the sword, there's no way to know how many he'll need to kill to get it, he could theoretically just be unlucky and NEVER get the sword. It's like saying "how many dice do you need to throw to guarantee landing on a 5". You'll always have a 1/6th chance of landing on a 5 on every individual throw, you'll never reach 100% probability of landing on 5, so it's impossible to determine a fixed number of throws required to 100% land a 5.
pass, stacking probabilities treat the math like they chain together when they are actually separate rolls EVERY time and I don't give a frick what some dead guy has to say to the contrary because its not how it works in rng strings made by computers.
>5
we need poison distribution
n = 49, p = 0.10^2
expected value: 51
51-49=2
NEVER HE'S NEVER GONNA GET IT BECAUSE HES A Black person HAHAHAHAHA
I got it first try btw.
>how many more
Between 1 and infinite if the drop rate remains unmodified between kills.
51
Since the process starts anew with each imp, we can assume it's independently rolled each time.
Thus, the probability that he does not get the epic fire sword after n dead imps is 0.99^n
At 49 fire imps, that's 61%. There is a 39% chance that he already has the fire sword.
At 100 fire imps, that would be 36.6%. Now, there is a 63.3% chance he has the fire sword.
He only has a 90% chance of getting it after killing 230 fire imps, and a 95% chance after killing 300.
Just one more. It's always just one more. That's the attitude you need to grind.
>Demetrius
GO TO THE BATHROOM
As long as he's having fun I don't think it's Important.
Go to the bathroom.
The general formula for a certain outcome with probability x after a number of attempts (y) to occur once (z), assuming x is the same every attempt, is 1-(1-x)^y=z. If you have two sequential conditions it's simply a matter of replacing x with xa*x (in this case, the chance of the table and the sword spawning respectively), and in turn substitute x for 1-(1-xb)^y. The new formula would be 1-(1-xa(1-(1-xb)^y))^y=z, with the conditions xa=xb=.1, y=49, wich is equal to ~.994092 or a 99.4% chance for short
Forgot to add: there's no number of attempts where the chance it will have dropped once is 1. Theoretically, you could say the chance is 1 once the probability reaches >[.9 with 4,294,967,295 repeating nines], since that's the largest number of decimals you can have in a 64-bit system (assuming the system is dealing with no other computations)
Near infinite because he is unlucky.
real answer is from an hour or two to infinity
math is gay and probability means absolutely nothing other than giving very general idea about if wasting time on [thing] is even worth it
>odds of getting it on the first try
1/100 , rare but you hear it happen to someone constantly
>Odds of getting TWO back to back on the first farm
1/10.000 , a truly rare event, people can play the game constantly nonstop without seeing such odds, but cases have been recorded.
So, out there, there is the probabilistic reverse equivalent of winning the lottery who has killed it a thousand times with no loot.